It's summertime!!!!

If you haven't made plans to visit Santa Rosa Beach FL and check out Casablanca on 30A this summer it's high time you did...'cause it's summer here and the time is right! Just for fun I wanted to provide a link to show a loop of the overall surface weather map for today (Saturday) through Monday. Note the lack of persistent rainy weather systems over the Florida panhandle.

Right now - and for the next few months - the typical weather outlook for each day will be a morning low in the mid-70s, afternoon high in the mid- to upper 80s, and a 20-30% chance of afternoon thunderstorms. And guess what the official National Weather Service forecast for this weekend into next week is? You got it!!

Meanwhile we do need to keep an eye on the Atlantic hurricane season but right now there's nothing to worry about:

In fact the concern over hurricanes impinging on our beach weather this season are a bit lower than normal due to the expected development of El Nino. This periodic phenomenon suppresses tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic basin due to increasing the overall wind shear. That helps to break apart any organization of storms in areas that may result in landfalling hurricanes. (Of course it only takes one storm to wreak havoc so we'll keep our eyes on things.)

In the meantime make your plans to come our way this summer! C'mon down, the water's nice this time of year!!

Summer is here and the time is right

Even a cursory check of the weather forecast for Santa Rosa Beach reveals that summer conditions are most definitely in place...i.e. it's Beach Weather!! With afternoon high temperatures in the mid-80s and morning lows in the mid-70s it is time to grab the swim suits, flip-flops, shades, and sunscreen and head to the beach.

Given the subtropical latitudes folks from more northern climes may not understand just how strong the Florida sunshine can be. This ultraviolet forecast page provides a daily and hourly forecast for folks to check and help prevent sunburn. With the clear skies as shown in the satellite image below it would be a good idea to apply liberal amounts of sunscreen before heading out today:

And since it is officially hurricane season (it began June 1st) we will all be keeping our eyes on the forecast. Right now there is a disturbance in the far southwest corner of the Gulf of Mexico upon which the National Hurricane Center is focusing but there is little concern at the moment for effects on Santa Rosa Beach.

So c'mon down! The water's fine!!

A summertime weather pattern emerges

You may have heard that the Florida panhandle was well and truly soaked by inches and inches of rain last week. Since then conditions have improved greatly and the summer vacation season is just around the corner. Santa Rosa Beach is ready and waiting for folks to come and enjoy the beach conditions!

The upcoming weather is looking a lot like summer around here with forecast highs right at 80 degrees and a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon (although the rainfall won't be anywhere near as abundant as last week's!!). That is a typical summertime forecast due to several reasons, one of which is that as spring turns over to summer the intensity of the sunshine increases. This provides atmospheric instability - a necessary ingredient for convection - which reaches a daily maximum during mid-afternoon.

Two other ingredients necessary for afternoon convective storms are moisture and a lifting mechanism (an upward push to the surface air). These two are provided by the sea breeze which itself is also driven by the stronger sunshine. This animation and the diagram below (from a USA Today article) provide visuals of how the sea breeze works:

The sea breeze boundary acts as a faux cold front when it pushes onshore. As this boundary carries cooler and moister air inland it plows underneath the warmer and dryer air. Thus air along the boundary is forced upward and creates the afternoon showers and storms that are typical summertime beach features.

So make plans to c'mon down to Santa Rosa Beach and check out Casablanca on 30A as a place to stay. It's time to forget the never-ending winter of 2014 and warm things up!!

Late spring reasons to visit Santa Rosa Beach

Ahhhh, spring weather has brought April blossoms to many locales and the memories of the "zombie" winter are fading. Not so fast though...the cold air looks to make yet another southern incursion over the eastern half of the U.S. during the next ten days or so. Granted, the air won't be as cold as it was during January or February but many folks will wonder where the spring weather disappeared to.

The indicators of this baleful news involve two "teleconnection" indices known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Basically they are forecast values that indicate what the near term weather pattern will be like. Here are graphs of each over the past few months and projected into the near future:

Note that both indices show a significant drop into the negative range into the first week of May. This drop rivals or exceeds the negative values over most of the past winter months. Negative springtime values for both the AO and NAO basically means colder than average weather over the eastern U.S. Thus the end of April and the beginning of May will feature a lot of folks wishing for warmer weather.

Enter Santa Rosa Beach!! Through the middle of next week temperatures will range from the mid-70s during the day to the mid-60s at night with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms thrown in. And even if the cold air pours southward to the Gulf of Mexico - as it looks by late next week - it will be quite a bit warmer here than further north. So make your plans to c'mon down and evade the latest variant of our "zombie" winter!!

Some rain today and tomorrow but then...beautiful!!

Yet another advantage of the southern latitude of Santa Rosa Beach (SRB) is the ability to dodge most of the wild weather swings during the fall and spring transition seasons. That has certainly been true this April as winter temperatures have warred with spring warmth over much of the nation while SRB's weather has remained pretty consistent. That doesn't mean it's always clear and beautiful here because rain is necessary to keep the subtropical vegetation flowering and greened up.

That's the situation for today and Friday as a surface low pressure center forms along an old frontal boundary draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Here is the forecast surface map for Friday morning:

The low center - red "L" circled - is just south of the Florida panhandle here with the green shading indicating steady rain for Friday. Between Thursday and Friday night over an inch of rain is probable for SRB and vicinity, with temperatures Friday topping out in the mid-60s under the clouds.

But come Saturday the sun pops back out and temperatures rise back into the mid-70s...and the weather stays that way through at least the end of next week! How's that for consistency? So plan a trip to Santa Rosa Beach and check out Casablanca on 30A as a potential vacation stop to enjoy our very predictable weather!!

Springtime at the beach

Want consistent spring temperatures? C'mon down to Santa Rosa Beach and enjoy the fine conditions even as the jet stream continues to buckle during April and pour cold air southward across the rest of the nation. One such invasion will occur next week when a colder than normal air mass invades the U.S. east of the Rockies courtesy of an unusually deep long wave trough. But check out this high temperature forecast graphic for Wednesday, the coolest day next week for many spots:

Notice the temperatures over the Florida panhandle and the red dot (Santa Rosa Beach)...it's still right around the 70 degree mark. In fact, the high temperature forecast for today - Thursday - through next Wednesday ranges between 70 and 75 degrees. There will be showers and thunderstorms around during the early part of next week but even then temperatures will be comfortably consistent.

So escape the wild temperature swings up north and visit Santa Rosa Beach FL. I'm sure the folks at Casablanca on 30A will be enjoying the weather here!!

No April Fool's joke here

The seven day forecast for Santa Rosa Beach from the National Weather Service is remarkably consistent temperature-wise. The high temperature today through next Monday (4/8) varies only from 70 to 74 degrees. One main reason for this is that the really cold air is locked up further north by the jet stream. This upper level steering current has flattened out into "zonal flow", i.e. instead of large north and south swings it is now flowing basically west to east.

One result is to keep temperatures pleasant and consistent at Casasblanca on 30A as a reminder that spring really is on the way. Another result is that the storm track for those cold early spring snow storms has moved way up north. Check out this water vapor satellite image from this morning as an illustration:

I've circled in yellow three major storm systems that are currently affecting the U.S. Note that all of them are moving west to east and are located along the northern third of the nation. Thus the weather here in the Florida panhandle is left to itself in a normal early spring pattern.

Confession: there is a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend, but when is that NOT part of a beach forecast?!! C'mon down and enjoy the advent of spring!!