Long wave trough will give way to the Bermuda High

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms in and around the Santa Rosa Beach area this time of year are usually due to the sea breeze pushing inland and creating convection. However, the recent persistent rainfall has been from the proximity of a surface front that has been "stuck" just west of the region.  This "stuckness" (if there is such a word) is courtesy of an upper air longwave trough that has taken up residence over the eastern U.S. for the past few days:

I added the blue line which shows the axis of the trough.

 The persistence of this trough is a bit unusual for this time of year but the overall setup has been consistent throughout the past few months, allowing an upper air flow of northerly winds into the Deep South.

Late this week the trough will push back northward and the upper air flow - the jet stream - will resume its normal midsummer west-to-east flow above the U.S. / Canadian border.  This will allow the more typical Bermuda High influence on northwest Florida weather with southerly surface winds pumping in the warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico:

Thus the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will back down a bit as next weekend approaches.  However the Fourth of July holds the promise of Nature's fireworks along with some heavy rains before things settle back down into typical beach weather.