A holiday weather outlook

One of the good things about a Gulf Coast locale is the tendency of the air temperatures to rebound from the passage of a strong cold front like the one that pushed through during the wee hours this morning.  The cold air advection that followed the front kept high temperatures down to the 50 degree (F) mark today (Saturday), but by Monday the temperatures will rise back into the 60's.  It's hard for it to snow with temperatures that warm, so how does bare ground sound to those folks who are already tired of frozen stuff falling out of the sky?

Now to be fair, much of New Year's week after Monday will bring rainy conditions but by next weekend things will dry out again as temperatures again climb into the 60's. The long term outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows the second week of January to be headed for above normal temperatures as shown here:

Given that the average high temperature for January at Santa Rosa Beach is 60 degrees we could be headed for highs in the 70's within the next week to ten days.  Sounds like a good time to warm up at Casablanca on 30A!!

A pre-holiday weather check

A cold front is approaching the Florida panhandle, ushering warm moist air into the Casablanca on 30A vicinity on southerly breezes.  Today's (Monday's) high temperature will be in the mid-70's (F) under mostly cloudy skies.  After a couple of days of thunderstorms and showers the dryer air mass behind this front will bring cooler temperatures and sunny skies by Wednesday afternoon...and by "cool" I mean highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's.  Contrast that with Chicago's weather, where the 40's represent the high temperatures this week!

(Chicago is the black diamond the arrow is pointing to, while Santa Rosa Beach is at the white cross in the Florida Panhandle.)

Anyone for a warm holiday season?  Come on down!!

A late November update

     I've been slacking in the effort to keep all informed of the weather in the Florida panhandle, but it should be no surprise that it's been warmer here at Casablanca on 30A than most places in the eastern U.S.!  Even though much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation have been warmer than normal this fall cold shots of Canadian air have blasted through the region periodically, leaving behind very cool conditions.   Guess what?  By the time those cold shots get to Santa Rosa Beach they have been modified (i.e. warmed up) and are thus not very chilly.
     For example this morning's low in Washington DC - even with the "urban heat island" effect - was 32 degrees (F), the freezing point.  The low here at the beach was 15 degrees higher than that, and the high today will reach into the mid-60's (and then into the 70's later this week) while DC will struggle to reach the 50 degree mark.  If you're wary of cold weather which sounds more comfortable to you?
     And as we dive deeper into the coming winter these cold shots will become more frequent and virulent since most forecasters believe this winter will be significantly colder than last year's over much of the U.S.  The warming imparted to these cold air masses by crossing thousands of miles of more southern climes before reaching the beach will be important to those looking to escape frigid conditions.  Here's a look at such a cold shot forecast to grind southward the second weekend of December.

Note the warmer green and yellow shades around the white cross located over Santa Rosa Beach.  The cold air is only cool down here, and it doesn't stick around very long before warming back up.
     So what are you waiting for?  C'mon down to our place and warm up a bit!

A November update

The weather pattern seems to be one of repetitive nor'easters forming along the Eastern U.S. coastline.  Long range forecast models are hinting at yet another one for Thanksgiving week which would put quite a damper - literally - on holiday plans for folks along the busy I-95 corridor.  This next storm could include more snow and wind for those places already reeling from "Superstorm Sandy".  What's worse is that at least one really long range model outlook suggests that another nor'easter could form in the same region the week after that.

Meanwhile the northern three-quarters of the country are feeling the effects of autumn by now as shown in the cooler blue shades in this forecast graphic for early next Saturday morning:

What does all this mean for Santa Rosa Beach?  It's still a great place to head for a warmup!  Afternoon temperatures this week will still be reaching into the upper 60's (F) and low 70's while the morning lows will remain in the low 50's.  Nor'easter?  What nor'easter?

Sandy missed us!

With all the focus on Hurricane Sandy and the subsequent nor'easter that - unfortunately - created havoc along the East Coast of the U.S. a little-known fact is that none of this impacted Santa Rosa Beach!  As the temperatures nose dive in the eastern half of the country behind this monster storm system the weather here remains warm and wonderful!  The highs this week are in the low to mid-70's (F) and look to remain that way through the beginning of next week after passage of a weak cold front that may pop a few showers Sunday night into Monday.  Even so Monday's forecast calls for partly sunny conditions.

The average high temperature for the month of November is in the low 70's, and it looks like we'll stay pretty close to average for the month given this graphic from the Climate Prediction Center:

Come on down!

Cool weather outbreak warning

Still wondering if you should head south since the fall weather is nice and warm in your area?  Take a look at these two temperature forecast maps.  First, the one for this coming Monday afternoon (Oct 22):

Still pretty balmy over much of the country.  Now, check out this forecast map for seven days later (same time of day, but for Oct 29):

Notice the blue colors invading the northern half of the U.S.?  That's a cold air invasion from Canada just before Halloween, and given the time of day for this graphic (18Z, or 2:00 p.m. EDT) this is a good representation of the high temperature for that day. 

Our nice warm autumn weather pattern appears as if it could quickly shift into one resembling more of a winter look.  But, look at the Florida panhandle...still showing high temperatures near 70 degrees even after the cold air intrusion.  Casablanca at 30A sounds like the place to be if you want to keep enjoying warm weather this fall!

More beautiful autumn weather ahead

You know, sometimes it just doesn't seem fair when weather at the beach stays warm, dry, and beautiful while the rest of the country chills down or stays wet.  But that's exactly what's happening at Santa Rosa Beach FL as a series of cold fronts sweeps across the nation about every 4 days.   The current front is pushing through the region today while the next one is due through Thursday, but what is noteworthy is that the beach forecast for both days includes the word "sunny" - after a mention of a slight chance of showers and thundestorms - and high temperatures at or near the 80 degree (F) mark.  How does that compare with weather at your location? 

And even though hurricane season lasts through the end of November there are no tropical systems anywhere near the Gulf of Mexico.  This graphic shows where Tropical Storm Rafael is headed and it's well away from Santa Rosa Beach.

So if you want warm and dry conditions for a beach vacation it's time to head down to Casablanca on 30A for a fall break from the cooler weather ahead!

More incentive to head to the beach

If you weren't - or aren't - prepared for this weekend's cold blast check out this temperature forecast graphic for Sunday evening October 7:

These temperatures for the atmospheric layer at 5000 feet (which I've picked because they aren't influenced much by daytime heating or nighttime cooling) show the "dagger" of cold air pouring out of Canada over most of the eastern half of the U.S., with the bluer shades representing colder temperatures.  Notice the temperatures over the panhandle of Florida...much warmer than those over the states to the north. 


Here are a few forecast high temperatures for Monday, which is Columbus Day:
     Washington DC     59 degrees (F)
     New York, NY       60
     Chicago, IL           60
     Indianapolis, IN     58 (with morning frost!!)
     Columbus, OH      56 (again, with morning frost!!)

What's Monday's forecast high for Santa Rosa Beach?    How about 77 warm degrees?!!!  So if you're not quite ready for the cold air think about what it would be like to be on the beach under sunny skies and short-sleeve temperatures at Casablanca on 30A. 

Wanna stay warm and dry?

Wow!  Check out this forecast graphic from the Climate Prediction Center that shows the temperature probabilities through the middle of October:

The eastern two-thirds of the U.S. looks like it will be much cooler than normal...but check out the lighter blue shading (or almost total lack thereof) at the yellow-starred location of Santa Rosa Beach.  The air temperatures here are forecast to be much closer to normal for this period than the Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic, Midwestern, and Great Plains states.  The proximity of the still very warm Gulf of Mexico waters helps moderate temperatures at beachfronts during the autumn months while the rest of the country cools off quickly.

In addition I just checked the precipitation forecast through the first two weeks of October and, other than a slight chance of afternoon showers and thundershowers on Thursday the 4th, conditions look to be dry during the entire period.  So let's see...dry weather plus temperatures warmer than locales further north (Santa Rosa Beach highs through this coming weekend will be in the low 80's!) should equal a great time to visit Casablanca on 30A!!

Come on down, the weather's fine!

This weekend's weather will be a bit wet as a large surface low pressure (circled below in white) gathers strength over Texas as shown in this forecast graphic for Saturday afternoon:

This storm system is unusually strong for this time of year as it uses some tropical moisture garnered from the eastern Pacific to wrap up into a large southern U.S. storm.  The good news - other than some much-needed rain in Texas - is that this system will rapidly pull away from the Florida Panhandle and the sun will return by early next week.

Tuesday the nice autumn beach weather returns to the Casablanca on 30A vicinity with only typical afternoon showers on tap and high temperatures in the low to mid-80's (F).  Contrast this to the temperatures further north as shown in this forecast graphic for Saturday afternoon Oct. 6th:

Note the red shades indicating the 80's covering the Santa Rosa Beach area - the white star - while the much cooler greens and blues cover most of the northern 3/4 of the U.S., so come on down.  The weather - starting Tuesday - will be fine all next week!!