Sunshine and comfortable temperatures abound

While the northern two-thirds of the nation shivers in abnormally cool late October weather Santa Rosa Beach basks in the sunshine and pleasant weather.  A series of cold fronts blasting across the country opened the door for warm and dry conditions to invade the Gulf Coast with another front due through tomorrow (Friday) morning.  This next frontal passage will be dry and will only drop the temperatures 4-5 degrees from their current highs in the mid-70's to a high Friday and Saturday near the 70 degree mark.

The weather over the weekend and into much of next week will be dominated by high pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. The clockwise circulation around this system will keep light northerly winds in place over the beachfront during the coming weekend.  Those winds will gradually switch to coming out of the northeast and then the east over the first part of next week as the high pressure center itself slides eastward.  The entire effect will be to keep warm temperatures in place along the Gulf Coast similar to those shown in this Weather Prediction Center forecast graphic showing high temperatures for Sunday:

The next chance of rain looks to be associated with another cold frontal passage late next week, probably during the day on Thursday.  Daily high temperatures behind that front also look to be near the 70 degree mark so the weather at Santa Rosa Beach (and of course, Casablanca on 30A) will continue to trump the weather in most other places further north.  C'mon down!

Pattern change!!

It's officially the latter half of October and a major shift in the U.S. weather pattern is underway.  The cold air that has been building up over Canada and Alaska is sliding southward and will cool things off for much of the eastern half of the nation.  The net effect of such a pattern change at Santa Rosa Beach will be to stall out a frontal system just off the coast and create several days of clouds and showers.  Here is the resulting seven day potential precipitation total for the Florida peninsula, which shows roughly 2.5 inches of rainfall for the beachfront between now and the middle of next week:

Today through Saturday the clouds will reign supreme but Sunday some sun will return.  Then the "big chill" shows up for much of the country as this model forecast for next Thursday afternoon indicates:

The cool blue shading representing the colder Canadian air dives all the way to the Gulf Coast states...but the good news is that it warms up quite a bit before reaching the beaches.  Daily high temperatures will remain in the mid-70's for the majority of the next week altho' I expect next Thursday will be a bit chillier with highs only in the upper 60's.  

After that quick cool blast the weather at Casablanca on 30A will warm back up much quicker than points north and east, so plan to come on down and enjoy the beach!

An awesome time to be at Santa Rosa Beach

With the Atlantic hurricane season apparently fizzling out while the zombie-like remnants of tropical storm Karen create rainy and overcast misery over the Mid-Atlantic states the weather at Casablanca on 30A remains a great reason for visiting!  There IS no rain in the official NWS forecast through early next week while sunshine abounds.  Temperatures are topping out in the comfortable low to mid-80's every day while morning lows dip "all the way down" to the mid-60's.

Surface high pressure centered near New Orleans is responsible for this delightful weather via its clockwise circulation that ensure the light breezes will head offshore.  This pushes the abundant Gulf moisture away from the beach and provides dry conditions replete with bright blue skies.  In fact the Weather Prediction Center rainfall total map through next Thursday (10/17) shows absolutely no rainfall accumulation for Santa Rosa Beach (red star):

So if you want bright blue skies, abundant sunshine, and warm temperatures make plans to head south to Casablanca on 30A.  It's a great way to extend summertime!

Good beach weather until the weekend

The official National Weather Service forecast for this week (and yes, they are still on the job despite the federal gov't shutdown) indicates typical beach weather for Santa Rosa Beach and vicinity.  A 20-40% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms and partly to mostly sunny conditions through Friday coupled with high temperatures in the low 80's leaves one to wonder what could be more enjoyable than heading down to the oceanfront every morning.  The weekend, however, could be a different story.

A tropical disturbance with a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone is currently transiting the Caribbean Sea on its way to the western Gulf of Mexico.  Upper air steering currents look to take this disturbance to a point near the Florida panhandle by Friday afternoon as shown in this forecast graphic from the GFS numerical model:

The white circle delineates the tropical system that will join forces with a cold front sweeping eastward across the nation.  The resulting very moist weather system will continue northward across the panhandle and up through the eastern U.S. through early next week, dumping lots of rain as it goes.

The result for Santa Rosa Beach and vicinity will be a fair amount of rain Saturday and Sunday with sunshine returning behind this system on Monday.  Daytime highs will still top out in the low 80's over the weekend even though there could be more clouds than sun.  So if you want a warm place to retreat while autumn temperatures invade the U.S. come on down!