Good beach weather until the weekend

The official National Weather Service forecast for this week (and yes, they are still on the job despite the federal gov't shutdown) indicates typical beach weather for Santa Rosa Beach and vicinity.  A 20-40% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms and partly to mostly sunny conditions through Friday coupled with high temperatures in the low 80's leaves one to wonder what could be more enjoyable than heading down to the oceanfront every morning.  The weekend, however, could be a different story.

A tropical disturbance with a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone is currently transiting the Caribbean Sea on its way to the western Gulf of Mexico.  Upper air steering currents look to take this disturbance to a point near the Florida panhandle by Friday afternoon as shown in this forecast graphic from the GFS numerical model:

The white circle delineates the tropical system that will join forces with a cold front sweeping eastward across the nation.  The resulting very moist weather system will continue northward across the panhandle and up through the eastern U.S. through early next week, dumping lots of rain as it goes.

The result for Santa Rosa Beach and vicinity will be a fair amount of rain Saturday and Sunday with sunshine returning behind this system on Monday.  Daytime highs will still top out in the low 80's over the weekend even though there could be more clouds than sun.  So if you want a warm place to retreat while autumn temperatures invade the U.S. come on down!