Long wave trough will give way to the Bermuda High

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms in and around the Santa Rosa Beach area this time of year are usually due to the sea breeze pushing inland and creating convection. However, the recent persistent rainfall has been from the proximity of a surface front that has been "stuck" just west of the region.  This "stuckness" (if there is such a word) is courtesy of an upper air longwave trough that has taken up residence over the eastern U.S. for the past few days:

I added the blue line which shows the axis of the trough.

 The persistence of this trough is a bit unusual for this time of year but the overall setup has been consistent throughout the past few months, allowing an upper air flow of northerly winds into the Deep South.

Late this week the trough will push back northward and the upper air flow - the jet stream - will resume its normal midsummer west-to-east flow above the U.S. / Canadian border.  This will allow the more typical Bermuda High influence on northwest Florida weather with southerly surface winds pumping in the warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico:

Thus the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will back down a bit as next weekend approaches.  However the Fourth of July holds the promise of Nature's fireworks along with some heavy rains before things settle back down into typical beach weather. 

Second day of summer and the consistent beach weather continues

Yesterday - Friday 6/21 - was the first day of astronomical summer (different from meteorological summer) and the weather continues to be consistent.  An upper level low pressure is spinning around over Georgia at the moment, producing showers and storms today at Santa Rosa Beach:

Upper level Low (red "L") over Georgia

After that feature moves northward the main influence on beach weather will be the Bermuda High parked off the eastern Atlantic coast of the U.S., pumping air northward from the Gulf of Mexico via southwesterly winds on the backside of this semi-permanent summer high pressure system.  This will continue the trend of afternoon showers and thunderstorms throughout the next seven days with temperatures each day peaking in the mid- to upper 80's and dropping to the mid-70's at night.

Looks like another great beach week coming up!

No worries yet for hurricane season and the beach weather is in full swing

The latest National Hurricane Center advisory on Tropical Depression Two shows its track moving westward from the current position to the southern region of Mexico over the next couple of days.

No other tropical systems are on the horizon as of now so Santa Rosa Beach is in the clear for hurricane concerns.

Meanwhile the weather here is being its typical summertime self:  partly to mostly sunny with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms between now and early next week.  The forecast high temperatures range all the way from 85 to 87 degrees (yes, you read that right) with morning lows swinging "wildly" between 75 and 76 degrees.  In other words if you want predictable summer beach weather it's here with nothing in the foreseeable future to change it. 

Sounds like Casablanca on 30A would be a great place to be about now!

It's summertime and the sea breeze is in full swing!

Let's see: 

          Daily highs in the mid-80's.  Check.
          Slight chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms:  Check.
          Light southerly winds during the day.  Check.

Yep, it's summer at Santa Rosa Beach!  The large scale weather systems - cold fronts, surface low pressure systems, upper level troughs - have moved northward so for the immediate future our weather here will remain pretty much the same, i.e. perfect beach weather.  With partly cloudy skies every day make sure you use plenty of sunscreen as the strong Florida sunshine can quickly redden just about anyone's skin.

So why during the summer is there a chance almost every day for afternoon thunderstorms?  The answer lies in the sea breeze, which forms along the land/water boundary in the absence of other large scale weather features.  This article provides a very good explanation of why the sea breeze forms.

 Once this very localized circulation sets up during the afternoon it provides a lifting mechanism a bit inland from the shoreline which can often push up clouds with enough energy to create thunderstorms.  These popup storms don't usually last long before they rain themselves out and providing perhaps a few lightning bolts as Nature's fireworks.

Just another summertime beach attraction!

A post-Andrea view

Tropical Storm Andrea is a distant memory for Santa Rosa Beach and the summertime is back this Saturday afternoon with a current temperature in the mid-80's.  There will be a brief hitch in the weather with another disturbance due to drift into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.  This system doesn't appear to have any tropical storm potential but it will usher in clouds and rain Sunday into Monday.

After this weathermaker shuffles on out of the area typical summer conditions return to Santa Rosa Beach for the rest of next week.  With sunshine and temperatures in the mid to upper 80's there will be a chance for afternoon thunderstorms due to the persistent sea breeze that predominates this time of year.  That's the kind of weather that the beach is supposed to have for a good vacation.  C'mon down!