Some rain today and tomorrow but then...beautiful!!

Yet another advantage of the southern latitude of Santa Rosa Beach (SRB) is the ability to dodge most of the wild weather swings during the fall and spring transition seasons. That has certainly been true this April as winter temperatures have warred with spring warmth over much of the nation while SRB's weather has remained pretty consistent. That doesn't mean it's always clear and beautiful here because rain is necessary to keep the subtropical vegetation flowering and greened up.

That's the situation for today and Friday as a surface low pressure center forms along an old frontal boundary draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Here is the forecast surface map for Friday morning:

The low center - red "L" circled - is just south of the Florida panhandle here with the green shading indicating steady rain for Friday. Between Thursday and Friday night over an inch of rain is probable for SRB and vicinity, with temperatures Friday topping out in the mid-60s under the clouds.

But come Saturday the sun pops back out and temperatures rise back into the mid-70s...and the weather stays that way through at least the end of next week! How's that for consistency? So plan a trip to Santa Rosa Beach and check out Casablanca on 30A as a potential vacation stop to enjoy our very predictable weather!!

Springtime at the beach

Want consistent spring temperatures? C'mon down to Santa Rosa Beach and enjoy the fine conditions even as the jet stream continues to buckle during April and pour cold air southward across the rest of the nation. One such invasion will occur next week when a colder than normal air mass invades the U.S. east of the Rockies courtesy of an unusually deep long wave trough. But check out this high temperature forecast graphic for Wednesday, the coolest day next week for many spots:

Notice the temperatures over the Florida panhandle and the red dot (Santa Rosa Beach)...it's still right around the 70 degree mark. In fact, the high temperature forecast for today - Thursday - through next Wednesday ranges between 70 and 75 degrees. There will be showers and thunderstorms around during the early part of next week but even then temperatures will be comfortably consistent.

So escape the wild temperature swings up north and visit Santa Rosa Beach FL. I'm sure the folks at Casablanca on 30A will be enjoying the weather here!!

No April Fool's joke here

The seven day forecast for Santa Rosa Beach from the National Weather Service is remarkably consistent temperature-wise. The high temperature today through next Monday (4/8) varies only from 70 to 74 degrees. One main reason for this is that the really cold air is locked up further north by the jet stream. This upper level steering current has flattened out into "zonal flow", i.e. instead of large north and south swings it is now flowing basically west to east.

One result is to keep temperatures pleasant and consistent at Casasblanca on 30A as a reminder that spring really is on the way. Another result is that the storm track for those cold early spring snow storms has moved way up north. Check out this water vapor satellite image from this morning as an illustration:

I've circled in yellow three major storm systems that are currently affecting the U.S. Note that all of them are moving west to east and are located along the northern third of the nation. Thus the weather here in the Florida panhandle is left to itself in a normal early spring pattern.

Confession: there is a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend, but when is that NOT part of a beach forecast?!! C'mon down and enjoy the advent of spring!!

Ready for spring weather?

It's been a while since the last blogpost here but suffice it to say that this winter has been long and harsh for most folks east of the Rocky Mountains. But here at Santa Rosa Beach the weather has been much more comfortable as only a few of the many Arctic air outbreaks (and none of the snowstorms!!) have made it this far south.

If you are still shivering in the cold and ready for a warm break take a peek at this high temperature forecast map for the beginning of next week:

I've inserted the white oval to indicate Santa Rosa Beach's location among the wonderfully warm orange and brown shades along the Panhandle of Florida. A quick look at the National Weather Service forecast shows high temperatures at or above the 70 degree mark this coming weekend and most of next week.

So make your plans to come on down and enjoy the spring weather here. And I happen to know first-hand that Casablanca on 30A is a great place to stay while you're here!

A wetter pattern for the U.S.

Over the past few days the large scale weather pattern over the nation has shifted away from the semi-permanent West Coast ridge and East Coast trough. That prior setup has created severe drought conditions in California while opening the floodgates for repeated dry and frigid Arctic air invasions over the eastern half of the U.S. Now, things are a bit different as shown in this Weather Prediction Center graphic:

This is a 7 day forecast of potential precipitation totals. Note the moisture from northern California up into British Columbia...that is quite a switch from recent dryness. Also note the west to east "belt" of moisture across the center of the nation. The current pattern is allowing more of a "zonal flow" (west to east) for the northern branch of the jet stream to transport Pacific moisture across the country. The higher precipitation over the East Coast is due to the southern branch of the jet stream pushing Gulf of Mexico moisture northward.

So what does this mean for Santa Rosa Beach and Casablanca on 30A? The swings in temperatures during January's cold air incursions have dampened - literally! - as the chances of rain have increased. The thermometer will top out in the mid-50s to the upper 60s over the next week with chances of rain most of those days. However it won't be a total washout as the sun will pop out for a while every day except Friday and Saturday. And another point to consider...no frozen stuff as low temperatures stay well above the freezing mark down here!!

Overall it's a great time to head south for some late winter relief, so c'mon down and enjoy the beach!

How about avoiding the Big Chill?

The buzz this week is the next Arctic air invasion, popularized (incorrectly BTW) as "Polar Vortex 2.0". But while the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast face first a significant snowstorm and then another round of dangerously cold wind chills Santa Rosa Beach offers sanctuary from such things. Check out this high temperature forecast graphic for this coming Sunday:

Note the warmer shades over the Florida panhandle and the blue "x" marking Santa Rosa Beach. Temperatures here may not be tropical compared to summer conditions but relative to the Arctic chill further north? No comparison! For example the lowest temperatures expected this week are Wednesday and Friday mornings when the thermometer will briefly dip to the 30 degree mark before climbing back up. No frozen precipitation here!!

Looking for a break from the chill? Like to get outside and enjoy sunshine and fresh air? C'mon down to Casablanca on 30A and enjoy some decent outdoor weather!

A New Year to enjoy the beach

Over the past few weeks (especially over the holidays) the Arctic sent a number of cold air masses plunging southward. Up until this now these cold shots dove straight south into Texas before scooting east. This allowed the very cold air to modify a bit over the warmer southern ground before moving over the southeastern quadrant of the nation (including Santa Rosa Beach). That pattern looks to be changing as I write this such that the next several cold shots will take a different path located a few hundred miles to the east, i.e. straight toward the Florida panhandle.

What does this mean for the East and for Casablanca on 30A? Colder weather is on the way over the next couple of weeks as this high temperature forecast map for Sunday Jan. 19th indicates:

Still, temperatures in the upper 50s at Santa Rosa Beach sound a lot better than the thermometer readings further north! 

Another affect of this change is that dryer conditions will prevail along the Gulf Coast. This weather pattern suppresses big storms over the southeastern U.S. as the moisture is kept locked up over the Gulf of Mexico. Thus the skies at the beaches are generally sunny as indicated in the National Weather Service forecast for Santa Rosa Beach. In fact Friday is the only day over the next week during which any chance of precipitation is forecast, and then it's only a 20% chance under mostly sunny skies!!

So if you're looking for some warmer temperatures and craving sunshine during the short gloomy days of winter come on down to Casablanca on 30A. We have what you need right here!