Saturday, August 17, 2013

A stretch of not-so-nice beach weather

The southwestern end of a stationary (read "stuck in one place") front is focusing a LOT of rainfall on Santa Rosa Beach now and for the next few days.  The boundary isn't going anywhere any time soon as this Weather Prediction Center forecast graphic for Tuesday morning shows:
The results of this weather setup include a flash flood watch and rip current statement issued by the National Weather Service office in Tallahassee and valid through 7 p.m. Sunday evening.

Total potential rain amounts by next Thursday evening are shown in this colorful graphic:
 The red shading over Santa Rosa Beach - the white star - indicates over three inches of rain, most of which will fall by Tuesday evening.  Yes, it will be wet!

Thus, good beach weather will be hard to come by for a while.  In fact the next day to have anything other than "mostly cloudy" in the forecast is Wednesday when "partly sunny" makes a comeback.  The good news is by that time typical summertime Santa Rosa Beach weather will return with afternoon showers and thunderstorms and highs in the upper 80's.  The only possible fly in the ointment could be the development of a tropical system from a disturbance currently in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but the National Hurricane Center only gives 30% odds of that occurring.  (Plus that moisture looks to stay over the western half of the Gulf.)

So, a short term glitch in beach weather but things look like they'll return to normal by midweek.  Casablanca on 30A is calling!

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